NFC Red Zone Target Breakdown

Arizona Cardinals

Red Zone Target Breakdown

Carson Palmer’s 406 passing yards in the red zone were second only to Tom Brady. Palmer doesn’t offer up much as a rusher, but he more than made up for it with 27 touchdown tosses versus only two interceptions. We saw Palmer’s overall passing numbers dip after the Cardinals established RB David Johnson as a workhorse, so it’s fair to expect a decline in red zone efficiency in 2016.

Larry Fitzgerald led the Cards in red zone looks and grabs, but John Brown wasn’t far behind. With Fitzgerald aging, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Brown lead the club in both categories this season. David Johnson garnered the third-most targets on the team, and that’s taking into account he played sparingly in the season’s first half. Johnson should be among the favorites to score the most touchdowns in the NFL in 2016.

Despite commanding 10 red zone targets, TE Jermaine Gresham was awful, catching only two passes and scoring a single touchdown. Reserve tight ends Darren Fells and Troy Niklas combined to catch 6 of 6 targets for five touchdowns. Regardless of who is at tight end, they have almost zero fantasy value in Bruce Arians‘s offense.

Red Zone Targets

QB Matt Ryan was middle of the pack in red zone passing last season, completing 56% of his passes for 295 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. 12 of those 17 scores came inside the 10-yard line. It’s reasonable to assume Ryan improves in his second season under Kyle Shanahan, but the Falcons didn’t do a lot to improve their receiving corps.

WR Julio Jones accounted for 28.8% of Atlanta’s red zone looks- the 6th highest mark in the league. Jones actually finished in the top-10 in both looks and catches, but his five scores was tied for 22nd. Dating back to 2013, Jones has only hit pay dirt 16 times, so an increase in that total would be a welcomed addition to his already soaring fantasy stock.

The departures or WR Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson free up 17 short-yardage target for the Falcons. Free-agent addition Mohamed Sanu should see some of those, but has never excelled in that area of the field. Atlanta running backs accumulated 20 red zone targets last season, and could see even more in 2016. In particular, second-year RB Tevin Coleman could be utilized with Devonta Freeman.

Red Zone Targets

One of the biggest factors in QB Cam Newton‘s break-out 2015 campaign was his dominance in the red zone. Not only did Newton lead the entire NFL with 12 red zone rushing touchdowns, he also finished third in both passing yards (384) and touchdown passes (26.) The fact that Newton did all this without the services or No. 1 wideout Kelvin Benjamin makes it even more impressive.

In the absence of Benjamin, TE Greg Olsen led the club with 20 RZ looks, which was the 15th-most targets in the NFL. Rookie WR Devin Funchess became a big factor in this part of the field in the season’s second half, catching five red zone touchdowns with his 6’4″ frame. Both Funchess and Ted Ginn Jr. caught six RZ touchdowns last year, but Ginn is more of a deep threat and likely to lose more looks to a healthy Kelvin Benjamin.

Despite the gaudy numbers from Cam Newton, the Panthers are a run-first team in the red zone, though Newton and FB Mike Tolbert are just as likely to punch in scores as Jonathan Stewart is. With a more difficult schedule and a defense that won’t be as good, expect Newton’s numbers to regress, and that will mean less overall targets for the receivers.

Red Zone Targets

Chicago Bears

Red Zone Target Breakdown

QB Jay Cutler completed only 44% of his red zone throws, but was decent in terms of yardage (204) and boasted an 11-to-2 touchdown-t0-INT ratio. Inside the 10, Cutler’s 37.8% completion percentage trailed only Teddy Bridgewater as the worst amongst starting quarterbacks. A fully-healthy receiving corps should improve both of those areas for Cutler in 2016.

The departures of RB Matt Forte and TE Martellus Bennett means that 24.7% of Cutler’s red zone throws from last season are no longer on the team. RB Jeremy Langford will get first crack at replacing Forte in the backfield, but Langford isn’t a polished pass-catcher- an area Forte thrived in. New starting TE Zach Miller was actually more efficient than Bennett in the red zone, and Miller outscored Bennett 3-2.

WR Alshon Jeffery was hampered by a bad hamstring last season but still led the team with 15 targets. Second-year wideout Kevin White has yet to see the field, but is expected to be a potential short-yardage factor. The presence of two large options on the outside should open things up near the goal line, and the Chicago offense should see a boost in efficiency.

Red Zone Targets

Dallas Cowboys

Red Zone Target Breakdown

The Cowboys offense was a mess last season, mainly due to serious injuries to QB Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Expectations for 2016 are that first-round RB Ezekiel Elliott will get ample carries as Scott Linehan tries to restore some balance to the Dallas offense. In 2014, DeMarco Murray received 393 carries in Linehan’s system.

Surprisingly, diminutive slot-receiver Cole Beasley led the club in red zone targets with 17. Bryant got 13 looks, but essentially played in only eight games. That percentage is more indicative of Bryant’s heavy-usage in that area of the field and how he should command top priority once again. In 2015, Bryant, Terrance Williams, and Brice Butler combined to catch only 7 of 27 red zone targets.

Romo completed 52% of his red zone passes for 94 yards and four touchdowns. He was only 4 of 11 for four yards inside the 10, where the Cowboys typically rely more on their rushing game. With the same group of wide receivers and tight ends returning intact, running backs Elliott and Darren McFadden will control the ground game, with Elliott being an early favorite to command the lion’s share of carries and targets out of the backfield.

Red Zone Targets